Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
